Asia-Pacific Consumer New Order: A Strategic Turning Point for Australian Business

The New Consumer Order in Asia-Pacific: A Strategic Turning Point for Australian Business

The center of gravity of global consumption growth is visibly shifting eastward. Bain & Company's latest "Asia-Pacific Consumer Products Report 2025" predicts that by 2035, the Asia-Pacific region will surpass North America to become the world's largest private consumption market. For the Australian economy, which has long relied on resource exports, this change carries profound implications: over the next decade, Asia-Pacific consumers will shape the contours of global demand, and Australian industry must learn to compete on this new "home turf" of consumption.

The report notes that global private consumption will grow from $65 trillion in 2025 to between $110 trillion and $120 trillion by 2035, with the Asia-Pacific region contributing the bulk of that growth. In the rolling year ended June 2025, Asia-Pacific fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales grew 4% year-on-year, with volume growth of 2.8% and price contribution of just 1.2%. This shows that growth in the Asia-Pacific market is driven mainly by people buying more goods rather than by rising prices, in sharp contrast to the "inflation-driven" growth seen in North America and Europe. As part of the Asia-Pacific region, Australian business clearly needs to understand this macro backdrop.

However, Asia-Pacific is not a homogeneous market. The six major trends identified in the report are reshaping this region, which is home to the world's largest consumer population, and three of these trends are particularly directly relevant to Australian business.

1. Diversification of Growth Engines: From "China's Dominance" to "Multipolar Drivers"

China remains the largest growth contributor in the Asia-Pacific region, but its GDP growth has declined from 6.8% in 2018 to 5.0% in 2024, and the IMF forecasts a further slowdown to 3.4% by 2030. At the same time, India has risen with a GDP growth rate of 6.5%, which is expected to persist through 2030; the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) are also projected to maintain growth of around 4.5%. But performance varies across markets: Southeast Asia's overall growth slowed from 3.5% in 2024 to 1.8% in the first half of 2025, while India grew by as much as 13.7% over the same period. This means Australian companies can no longer simplify their Asia-Pacific strategy into a "China strategy" as they have for the past decade. For food exporters, the growth of India's middle class may offer market opportunities similar to those China presented ten years ago, but product, brand, and channel strategies must be re-tailored; for service providers, the diversified demands of the ASEAN market also require more detailed localization approaches.

This shift also has implications for Australian trade policy. Resource exports remain dominant, but the multipolar growth of consumer markets means trade agreements and business networks need to extend to more markets in order to hedge against volatility in any single market. Australia has signed trade agreements with multiple Asia-Pacific economies, but market development at the enterprise level still lags behind. The report's data reminds us that future opportunities belong to companies that can simultaneously build deep roots in China, India, and ASEAN.

2. Diverging Consumer Preferences: Premiumization and Value Consciousness Coexist The report analyzed six markets and eight categories, and found that no market experienced comprehensive consumption downgrading, nor did any category show the same trend everywhere. On the contrary, laundry products in China, India, and Indonesia, as well as beauty products in India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia, all showed clear signs of premiumization. This means that even under the new normal of "rational consumption," some categories and consumer groups are still willing to pay for higher-level value.

Bain's "Elements of Value" framework points out that brands can command a premium by embedding higher-level value. Australian company Who Gives A Crap provides a typical case: by emphasizing environmental value and donating half of its profits, this toilet paper brand successfully increased its market share from 0.9% to 2.6% (as of June 2025). This proves that Australian brands, with their unique value propositions, can definitely carve out a place in the highly competitive Asia-Pacific market. Similar opportunities also appear in health food, natural skincare, clean technology, and other fields—industries where Australia has a comparative advantage.

3. Channel Complexity: E-commerce Has Become an Irreversible Growth Engine

In China and South Korea, online channels already contribute about 40% of FMCG sales, while in most other Asia-Pacific markets, offline channels still dominate. However, e-commerce is continuously expanding its share in all major markets, including Australia. This trend brings not only changes in sales channels, but also an all-round test of supply chains, customer relationships, and data capabilities.

For Australian retailers and brands, this means they must manage both traditional retail and omnichannel operations, and also rethink the efficiency of last-mile delivery. The expansion of global platforms such as Amazon in the Australian market, as well as the online transformation of local retailers, both require companies to invest more in logistics infrastructure and data-driven marketing. The rise of e-commerce has also changed the way brands connect with consumers: niche brands can bypass shelf constraints and reach target customers directly, providing Australian innovative brands with a low-cost path to going global.

Overall Impact on Australian Business

The Bain report points out that the complexity of the Asia-Pacific market requires CPG companies to understand local nuances, adjust their market entry approaches, and accelerate AI transformation. For Australian companies, this entails at least three requirements:

First, the market portfolio must be diversified. Over the past decade, many Australian companies have relied on the growth of the Chinese market alone, but now they need to build a portfolio covering markets such as India, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea to balance risks and opportunities.

Second, value creation must be localized. Consumer preferences vary significantly across markets, and a "one-size-fits-all" product and marketing strategy is doomed to fail. Australian brands should leverage their national image of being "clean, green, and safe" to establish differentiated positioning in the premium market.Third, operating models must be digitalized. Artificial intelligence is reshaping every link of the consumer goods industry, from demand forecasting to personalized marketing. Australian companies need to accelerate technology investment, or they will be overtaken by more agile Asian local competitors.

Long-term trend: structural opportunities in the next decade

Looking ahead, population growth, urbanization, and an expanding middle class in the Asia-Pacific region will bring its consumer market to a new height by around 2035. The report predicts that Asia-Pacific will surpass North America by 2035 to become the world's largest consumption region, with global private consumption reaching US$110 trillion to US$120 trillion by then. Even if growth slows afterward, Asia-Pacific will remain the biggest engine of global growth.

For Australia, this means the "golden era" of resource exports is transitioning to a "diversified era" of consumer trade. Companies that can seize the wave of consumption upgrades in Asia-Pacific will reap substantial rewards over the next decade, while those that continue to cling to old models risk being marginalized. Australia is located in Asia-Pacific and holds institutional, geographic, and trust advantages, but the market will not tilt in its favor automatically. Only companies that truly understand regional diversity and operate in a localized manner will enjoy the dividends of this historic round of growth.

Key points

• Asia-Pacific will become the world's largest consumer market by 2035, and Australian companies must adapt proactively.
• Asia-Pacific FMCG growth is driven mainly by volume, indicating a healthy demand base.
• China's growth is slowing, while India and ASEAN become the new engines; differentiated positioning is a prerequisite.
• Consumer preferences are diverging, but premiumization opportunities remain, and Australian brands can break through with their value propositions.
• E-commerce is the growth engine across major markets, and Australia needs to accelerate omnichannel and AI capability building.